Investors will debate the merits of investing in the upcoming mega-IPOs, that is what makes a market, but it’s worth considering the impact that these deals will have on market dynamics. SpaceX is trying to go public this week at a market value of over $1.7 trillion. That would make SpaceX worth roughly the same as the entire global aerospace industry. To get to that valuation, investors are being asked to pay approximately 70x revenues. For reference, Amazon went public at valuation of 3x revenues, Google at 7x revenues and Meta at 20x revenues. Further, with other companies like Anthropic and OpenAI also seeking to raise funds in the public market, the sheer volume of new equity issuance this year with be $225 billion according to Goldman Sachs, dwarfing anything seen over the past 20 years or so. When accounting for shares the market is also being asked to absorb via expiring lock-ups, that figure balloons to well over $700 billion. Unfortunately, as strategist Callie Cox points out, the largest IPO deals of the past 25 years have a poor track record of returns in the following 12-month period as estimates of demand were simply too optimistic.
June 9, 2026
Investors will debate the merits of investing in the upcoming mega-IPOs, that is what makes a market, but it’s worth considering the impact that these deals will have on market dynamics. SpaceX is trying to go public this week at a market value of over $1.7 trillion. That would make SpaceX worth roughly the same as the entire global aerospace industry. To get to that valuation, investors are being asked to pay approximately 70x revenues. For reference, Amazon went public at valuation of 3x revenues, Google at 7x revenues and Meta at 20x revenues. Further, with other companies like Anthropic and OpenAI also seeking to raise funds in the public market, the sheer volume of new equity issuance this year with be $225 billion according to Goldman Sachs, dwarfing anything seen over the past 20 years or so. When accounting for shares the market is also being asked to absorb via expiring lock-ups, that figure balloons to well over $700 billion. Unfortunately, as strategist Callie Cox points out, the largest IPO deals of the past 25 years have a poor track record of returns in the following 12-month period as estimates of demand were simply too optimistic.