In our April Insights letter, we highlighted the graph below from Goldman Sachs suggesting that investor survey readings (soft data) both declines and recovers well before calculated economic measures (hard data) reflect weakness in the economy. Goldman published an updated version of the chart this morning suggesting that we are seeing this dynamic play out once again with the sharp decline in sentiment after the tariff announcements abating while hard data continues to deteriorate.
June 17, 2025
In our April Insights letter, we highlighted the graph below from Goldman Sachs suggesting that investor survey readings (soft data) both declines and recovers well before calculated economic measures (hard data) reflect weakness in the economy. Goldman published an updated version of the chart this morning suggesting that we are seeing this dynamic play out once again with the sharp decline in sentiment after the tariff announcements abating while hard data continues to deteriorate.