While a constructive outlook for 2026 bolstered by the tailwinds of fiscal stimulus, decreasing interest rates and strong corporate fundamentals remains in place, the labor market continues to show signs of stress. Today’s ADP report on US private employment recorded a surprise decline of -32,000 jobs. More concerning is the decline of -120,000 jobs reported by small businesses which account for roughly 50% of US employment. While one month’s data is not significant, the three-month trend is now negative. One year ago, the economy was adding an average of over 200,000 private jobs.
December 3, 2025
While a constructive outlook for 2026 bolstered by the tailwinds of fiscal stimulus, decreasing interest rates and strong corporate fundamentals remains in place, the labor market continues to show signs of stress. Today’s ADP report on US private employment recorded a surprise decline of -32,000 jobs. More concerning is the decline of -120,000 jobs reported by small businesses which account for roughly 50% of US employment. While one month’s data is not significant, the three-month trend is now negative. One year ago, the economy was adding an average of over 200,000 private jobs.