As 2025 comes to a close, the majority of Wall Street strategists have published their 2026 S&P 500 return targets. We have said many times that trying to predict returns is futile, however, looking at the data can provide some insight as to the consensus view. As of now, the average return estimate for next year is roughly +9.5% which is close to the long-term average annual performance of the S&P 500 Index. However, unlike last year when there was heightened uncertainty surrounding the economic policies of the incoming US administration, for 2026, the targets are much more tightly clustered. As Bespoke Investment group has calculated, the error of these targets has been over +14% since 2000 making them poor guideposts for investors. Rather, we would suggest following earnings growth which is a much better predictor of future prices, and heading into 2026, S&P 500 earnings are anticipated to grow by 15% according to Factset.
December 29, 2025
As 2025 comes to a close, the majority of Wall Street strategists have published their 2026 S&P 500 return targets. We have said many times that trying to predict returns is futile, however, looking at the data can provide some insight as to the consensus view. As of now, the average return estimate for next year is roughly +9.5% which is close to the long-term average annual performance of the S&P 500 Index. However, unlike last year when there was heightened uncertainty surrounding the economic policies of the incoming US administration, for 2026, the targets are much more tightly clustered. As Bespoke Investment group has calculated, the error of these targets has been over +14% since 2000 making them poor guideposts for investors. Rather, we would suggest following earnings growth which is a much better predictor of future prices, and heading into 2026, S&P 500 earnings are anticipated to grow by 15% according to Factset.