While many investors are focused on their mid-August vacations, the macro investment environment has coalesced around two narratives. First, earnings have been historically good with the growth rate outside of one-time items averaging +30% and the median rate coming in at +14%, a demonstration of broad market strength. As such, earnings estimates for both 2026 and 2027 have moved sharply higher. At the same time, however, long-term bond yields globally have climbed to their highest level since the Global Financial Crisis reflecting investor angst about unrelenting inflation, surging sovereign debt levels, an unprecedented amount of debt issuance, and a deterioration in the geopolitical landscape. With roughly 75 days until the US mid-term elections, investors will be watching both measures as they return to the office in September.
August 18, 2026
While many investors are focused on their mid-August vacations, the macro investment environment has coalesced around two narratives. First, earnings have been historically good with the growth rate outside of one-time items averaging +30% and the median rate coming in at +14%, a demonstration of broad market strength. As such, earnings estimates for both 2026 and 2027 have moved sharply higher. At the same time, however, long-term bond yields globally have climbed to their highest level since the Global Financial Crisis reflecting investor angst about unrelenting inflation, surging sovereign debt levels, an unprecedented amount of debt issuance, and a deterioration in the geopolitical landscape. With roughly 75 days until the US mid-term elections, investors will be watching both measures as they return to the office in September.